A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
